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SEMI Forecasts Equipment Industry
Dec 2004
CHIBA, Japan, Dec. 3 -- The market for semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to grow 59 percent in 2004 to be the second largest annual level ever recorded, according to the year-end edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Consensus Forecast, released here this week at the annual Semicon Japan exposition. The world's leading manufacturers of semiconductor equipment expect a moderate cyclic decline in the 2005 to $33.49 billion.

Survey respondents expect the industry to sell $35.31 billion of new chip manufacturing, testing and assembly equipment in 2004. In 2005, the industry is expected to contract 5.1 percent. Industry revenues are expected to increase slightly in 2006 before rising nearly 15 percent to $39.61 billion in 2007.

"Following a robust growth year in 2004, SEMI members expect a pause in 2005 as semiconductor manufacturers digest the new manufacturing capacity," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. "SEMI members see a slight decline in the overall market next year, followed by a moderate recovery in 2006 and a return to double digit market expansion in 2007."

Wafer process equipment, which is the largest segment by dollar value, is expected to decline 3 percent to $23.17 billion in 2005. In the same period, the "other front end" equipment segment, which consists of mask and wafer-making equipment as well as fabrication facilities, is projected decline 5 percent to $2.64 billion. Test equipment, which experienced growth in excess of 50 percent in 2003 and 2004, will see sales decrease about 9 percent in 2005 to $5.64 billion. Assembly and packaging equipment is forecast to decline faster and recover more quickly with a decline of 14 percent in 2005 and gains of 11 percent and 25 percent respectively in 2006 and 2007.

The equipment market in Japan, which more than doubled in the period from 2002 to 2004, will remain the world's largest market for semiconductor equipment in 2005, though it is projected to decline about 14 percent to $6.79 billion, according to the report. Other market regions expected to decline in 2005 include Taiwan (8 percent), Europe (1 percent), Rest of World (6 percent) and South Korea (about 1 percent). North America and China are the only market regions forecast to grow in 2005, albeit slightly.

The SEMI Year-end Consensus Forecast is based on interviews conducted between October and November 2004 with companies representing a majority of the total sales volume for the global semiconductor equipment industry.

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