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PV to Reach $155B in 2018

Photonics.com
May 2013
BOSTON, May 22, 2013 — The solar photovoltaic (PV) market is on the path to recovery, expecting to reach $155 billion in 2018, according to market analyst firm Lux Research.

The “Market Size Update 2013: Return to Equilibrium” report forecasts industry growth to reach 35 GW in 2013 before rapidly ramping to 61.7 GW in 2018. The report predicts that the US, China, Japan and India will take over from Germany and Italy to lead the new market, in which commercial and utility-scale solar will dominate.

“Manufacturers’ nightmare is turning into a long-term boon for the industry,” said Ed Cahill, Lux Research associate and lead author of the report. “Record low prices pushed gross margins to near zero or below, but they’ve made solar installations competitive in more markets.

“Supply and demand will come back into balance in 2015, easing price pressure, returning manufacturers to profitability and restoring the industry to equilibrium,” he added.

Lux Research based the report on a detailed levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis in 156 geographies to determine the competitiveness and viability of PV in each market.

The company predicts that the US’s PV market will grow 18 percent annually to 10.8 GW of installations in 2018, becoming the world’s second largest market. It also expects China to emerge as the world’s largest market, growing more than 15 percent annually to 12.4 GW in 2018.

Utility-scale PV is forecasted to grow to 19.9 GW in 2018, but commercial PV will be the largest market segment, according to the report.

The analysts also said that there will be many opportunities to acquire inexpensive intellectual property from struggling startups.

The report is part of the Lux Research Solar Systems Intelligence and the Solar Components Intelligence services.

For more information, visit: www.luxresearchinc.com


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