Market Forecast: Broadband Optimism Justified

AUSTIN, Texas, August 19 -- U.S. broadband adoption is on track, and, barring major business or regulatory mistakes, long-term optimism for broadband is justified, according to Lawrence K. Vanston, president of market forecaster Technology Futures Inc. (TFI).

Despite the economy, internet and telecom business fluctuations, regulatory disputes, loss of competitors and higher prices, over 10 percent of US households subscribed to broadband at the end of 2001, up from about 5 percent in 2000, Vanston says in a new TFI white paper. Although a few countries have higher penetration rates and many analysts
had forecast higher penetration for the US, actual 2001 results exceeded TFI's baseline forecast from 2000.

The paper forecasts the size of the total US residential broadband access market. Forecasts are also given on how bandwidth requirements will increase over time. These are important, TFI says, because upgrading facilities to serve evolving broadband requirements efficiently will be key to competitiveness in the "broadband age."

"Residential Broadband Forecasts" is available as a free download at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/white.html.