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Forecast: Worldwide Solar Capacity to Reach 66 GW by 2019

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BOSTON, Aug. 26, 2014 — The global solar power industry will grow to a capacity of 65.6 gigawatt-peak (GWp) by 2019, with China at the forefront, the market analysis firm Lux Research predicts.

Worldwide solar power capacity stood at a 37.5 GWp in 2013, meaning Lux Research predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3 percent for the industry.

China became the biggest solar market in the world in 2013, with capacity of 11.8 GWp, and has been key to faster-than-expected global recovery, Lux said. The U.S. market is expected lead growth by 2019, increasing to 11.7 GWp from capacity of 4.7 GWp in 2013. The South American market is expected to grow 10-fold to 2.5 GWp.

“With solar now fairly common in most parts of the world, it reaps the rewards of direct incentives but also faces uncertainty due to pressure on trade activity with China,” said Lux Senior Analyst Matthew Feinstein.

Lux said technologies including passivated emitter rear contact (PERC), heterojunction with intrinsic layer (HIT) and selective emitter (SE) are on track to improve photovoltaic efficiency. Crystalline silicon will remain the technology of choice, with an 84.6 percent market share. Meanwhile, system costs will drop by 36 cents per watt-peak for utility-scale installations and 60 cents per watt-peak for residential installations.

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Aug 2014

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