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The value of asking

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DANIEL MCCARTHY, SENIOR EDITOR [email protected]

Are certain scientific discoveries inevitable? Had Einstein not developed the general theory of relativity first, would some other physicist have eventually laid claim to it? Had Alexander Fleming not observed the moldy petri dish, would someone else have pioneered penicillin? Such questions are compelling to speculate about. But a more practical line of inquiry might ask whether certain discoveries can be predicted, or, even better: Can their potential returns be calculated? Pharmaceutical companies evidently think so. They routinely invest between $1 billion and $2 billion to apply a...Read full article

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